Buy a Bucks Ticket, Get a 10 Day Contract

The Bucks recently traded Tyrone Lue to Orlando for Keith Bogans. This is one of those 'meh' trades that most people don't even realize happened until they watch a game or two and say to themselves, "I didn't know Keith Bogans was on the Bucks." Bogans is a 6'5" off guard and Lue plays the point. Neither of them are starters and both are probably third stringers. The Bucks still had Ridnour and Sessions to play point and Charlie Bell could fill in for a couple of minutes a game. No big loss, right? Wrong. The day after Lue was traded Ridnour broke his thumb in practice (apparently he caught it in the jersey of a teammate. Rumors that he was trying to hitch a ride as Sessions was blowing past him are unsubstantiated at this time) and is now out four weeks. So that leaves the Bucks with one honest to goodness point guard on the roster in Sessions.

This injury is just salt in the wound for the Bango and Co. Michael Redd went out for the season with a knee injury in late January and Andrew Bogut is done for eight weeks with a back as crooked as a politician. Needless to say the Bucks are a depleted squad. But at least they have a modicum of depth at shooting guard and center. Granted, Gadzuric hardly even qualifies as an NBA player but he gets paid and puts on a uniform and I hear from childhood playmates that he's good at playing the pretend game so maybe he can fake it for two months.

Point guard is a whole 'nother situation. I like Sessions and think he has a chance to be a decent starting guard in the NBA but he can't play 48 minutes a game. And there's no way Charlie Bell can play point for more than 10 min a game or his knees might burst (it would be like the NBA version of Scanners).

So what's a Bucks coach to do? According to Scott Skiles, he'll "try to balance it" which is coachspeak for "We're hosed. We have no bench. If Sessions gets hurt, I may have to sign myself to a 10 day contract." Hammond is probably scouring the D leagues looking for a serviceable replacement (Marbury would have been interesting at the right price) but I have another suggestion; open tryouts for ticket holders. I can almost guarantee there is NBA talent as valuable as Dan Gadzurich roaming the streets of Milwaukee. Heck, it could be Milwaukee's version of Invincible - a street smart kid from the north side of Milwaukee catches the eye of NBA GM John Hammond who, under pressure from US Senator and friend to the common man Herb Kohl, signs the kid to a 10 day contract expecting him to stay on the end of the bench. People from all over Milwaukee come to see the hometown kid put on a Bucks uniform three sizes too big with no name on the back and a double zero for a number. On the day his contract is set to expire, Sessions goes down with an injury against Cleveland. Skiles points a bony finger in the kid's direction and says "Get in there and run the (expletive) point". Actually, since this is most likely a Disney production, he'd lose the expletive but you get the gist. The kid goes in and his first shot is an air ball. Lebron James walks over to him and says "I didn't know they grew them so small in the 'hood". This is all the motivation our hero needs. Maybe we flash back to a drunken father telling him he will enver amount to anything. He hits one shot and then another. Cue "I Believe I Can Fly" by R Kelly and we enter a slow motion montage of him hitting all sorts of acrobatic shots and throwing passes that would make Warren Beatty blush. He sets the world on fire and the crowd goes into a frenzy. It's like the Jason McElwain game times a thousand. As the clock winds down the Bucks hold the ball down one. He drives through the lane and is hacked quite violently by James as the buzzer sounds. The crowd boos, paper cups are thrown, Skiles is beside himself. Labron James confronts him during the stoppage in play and tries to stare down our protagonist. Our boy stares right back. He steps to the free throw line. Long story short, he makes both shots, wins the game, gets signed for the rest of the season, leads the Bucks to a playoff spot, and ends up on the motivational speaking circuit telling overpaid middle managers that they too can achieve if they set their minds to it.

Unfortunately, union rules probably preclude this from ever happening which is unfortunate because it would make a heckuva movie....even if he bricks the free throw.

Are the Bucks a Good Defensive Team? I'm Serious.

I've been a following Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings for several years now. I haven't checked the history so I'm not entirely certain if he invented them but he's certainly popularized their usage in the college game. The basic theory is that good offensive basketball teams are more efficient with their posessions than bad teams. That is, they score more per chance. This is slightly different from the conventional wisdom that good offensive teams score more per game. Conversely, good defensive teams give up fewer points per chance than bad defensive teams. So a slow it down team like Georgetown can be just as efficient (i.e. effective) as a run and gun team like North Carolina. The theory being that a slow it down team that scores on a high frequency of possessions is almost the same as playing good defense since it takes the ball out of the other teams hands. Efficiency ratings can further be broken down into offensive and defensive components - shooting, rebounding, free throws, and turnovers. These were developed by Dean Oliver and form the basis of the effiency statistics. Formulas can be found here. Broad definitions are below and listed in order of importance to a team:

Shooting:
Effective field goal % = is like a regular shooting percentage except three point shots are given 50% more value

Turnovers:
Turnover % = rate at which a team turns the ball over per possession

Rebounding:
Offensive Rebounding Percentage = simply the percentage of times a team gets an offensive rebound vs. their opponent getting a defensive rebound. Obviously, you want a high percentage on offense and a low percentage on defense.

Free Throws:
Free Throw Rate = Measures a team's ability to score points from the free throw line. For defense, it's how many times your opponents get to the line. Teams that get to the line more often are more effective than teams that make a high percentage. This flies in the face of conventional wisdom and obviously there are game to game exception but look no further than the Wisconsin Badger teams of years past to see how effective this can be. Several NBA teams track this number each season. The Boston Celtics stat guy wrote about it a few years ago.

So what does this all have to do with the NBA and the Milwaukee Bucks? John Hollinger has been posting advanced NBA stats on ESPN.com for a few seasons. And a quick glance provides some interesting results. I think this is supposed to be Insider (i.e. you need to pay) but for some reason I can view it and hopefully everyone can - unless I'm just special.

The first thing that jumped out at me was the defensive efficiency. Milwaukee ranks 5th in the NBA. This despite the fact that they give up 12th most points in the league. That tells me they probably play pretty fast - and they do to a degree. They rank 12th in the league in pace (possessions per game). If you dig a little deeper you see they are a really good rebounding team. They are third in the NBA in defensive rebound rate. In other words, they are really good at preventing the opposing team from getting offensive rebounds (congratulations, Andrew Bogut). This may explain why the Bucks have taken so many more 2 point shots than their opponents (2789 vs 2570) and taken fewer three point shots (592 to 508 although missing Michael Redd for a few weeks certainly hurt that number).

Unfortunately, Hollinger does not post defensive field goal efficiency. Maybe someone out there on the web has it for the NBA and if they do I will post it later. But my guess is that the Bucks aren't as high on that ranking based on the number of three point field goals they've given up. In any event, there's good evidence the Bucks are actually a decent defensive team.

So how are they on offense? Not so good. They are 23rd in the league in offensive efficiency and a look at turnover rate and effective field goal percentage tells you the whole story. Shooting accurately is the most important aspect to winning an NBA game and the Bucks do it poorly. They rank 26th in the league in effective shooting percentage. Hollinger also measures true shooting percentage - that is, shooting percentage that accounts for three pointers, two pointers, and free throws. The Bucks rank 25th in the league here. Another issue the Bucks have is turnovers. They rank 21st in the league in turnover rate. Granted, this can be overcome with good shooting (Boston ranks last in TOR) but if you hand the ball to the other team and can't overcome it with a high shooting percentage you are in for trouble.

There is hope however as the return of Michael Redd should improve the effective field goal percentage a bit. According to head coach Scott Skiles, Redd is actually playing defense this year so there's a good chance the defensive numbers remain high. All in all, the Bucks are a decent enough team with a chance to get better. It would be interesting to go behind the team numbers and see what the individual rates were but that's for another post - assuming the data is out there somewhere (or if I get motivated enough to calculate it myself....doubtful). I'll be very interested to see what, if anything, the Bucks do at the trade deadline. I think I'd much rather have a guy like Kyle Korver or Jason Kapono come off the bench instead of Villanueva. Of course, I'm just glad Milwaukee has a team for the time being.

2009 NFL Draft Projections

A number of 2009 NFL draft projections are out which to me is kind of pointless until all the underclassmen declare and even then these things are rarely close - especially when Ted "Best Available" Thompson is running the show for Green Bay. NFL Draft Countdown even goes out to three rounds. Talk about an exercise in futility. But they are interesting to look at and generate discussion on potential draft picks.

Below is a list of various draft projections from various websites profiling various potential Packer picks. We'll revisit this as the draft draws closer and maybe even do a retrospective to see if any of these jokers are close on their predictions.

Fantasy Football Toolbox
Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech Packers need help stuffing the run, but with the lack of highly rated defensive tackles at this point in the draft, they grab the 6-' 7 pass rusher to help DE Aaron Kampman

Walter Football
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State If there's one thing we learned about Packers GM Ted Thompson, it's that he loves to take the best player available, no matter what position he plays. Luckily for Thompson, that strategy matches up with a position of need - and not another signal caller. Green Bay has major problems in its secondary. Charles Woodson had to move to safety this season, and it appears as though he's staying there. Meanwhile, Al Harris, who's owed $5 million next year, probably won't be back. Tramon Williams played well, but the Packers don't really have anything else at corner, unless you want to count Patrick Lee, who couldn't even get on to the field in 2008.

Footballs Future
Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech Johnson has tremendous upside as a pass rusher, and his presence could upgrade the entire level of the D. Teams have to keep an eye on him every snap because of his explosive pass rush ability.

Fantasy Football Jungle
*This Pick is Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama* The Packers porous run defense is one of the many things that made them a third place NFC North team compared to a team with home field in the NFC Championship Game a year ago. The Pack felt the loss of Corey Williams this season, along with the continued struggles of Justin Harrell. Cody would team with Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, and Colin Cole to plug the run. A rotation of those four men would be dominant in a division with Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte, and would making running the ball against them about as difficult as running against the Williams wall from Minnesota.

New NFL Draft
Brian Orakpo, DE, UT
The Packers are getting older in their secondary as well as along their defensive line. Brian Orakpo is a steal with this pick because I believe he could go as high as three to the Chiefs in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Draft King
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State Consider this: Charles Woodson is 32 and Al Harris (who suffered a ruptured spleen earlier this year) is 34. The Packers need youth at corner in a major way. Jenkins might have been a top 15 pick had he come out last year, but with another year of seasoning on the college level he looks like the clear top cornerback prospect.

Scout.com
Everette Brown, DE Florida St The Packers have to improve their pass rush after a down year and the selection of Brown provides Green Bay with a relentless defender with huge potential (Yikes - DE from Florida St? Anyone else having a Jamal Reynolds flashback? AH)

And then depression set in...

"Now is the winter of our discontent..."
William Shakespeare, King Richard III

"And then depression set in...."
Bill Murray, Stripes

Winter in the Midwest sucks. In the last week or so we've had 1) over a foot of snow 2) sub zero temperatures 3) 60 degree temperatures 4) rain. More snow is expected tonight to replace all the snow that melted the other day. This is the basic cycle of events (minus the 60 degree weather) we can expect for the next three months or so. But for most Midwesterners (outside of the occasional transplant) we usually just shrug it off and go about our business. We shuttle from our homes to our cars to work and back again without too much complaint. One reason could be we are just bred for the weather. Much like a Malamute is born with a thick layer of fur, we might be born with thick skin and thicker blood. While that theory sounds good, a more likely explanation probably resides in the social sciences rather than the biological (my apologies, Mr. Darwin).

Typically there is one common event that ties the people of Wisconsin together come January - the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. The last 16 years that's been almost as sure a thing as my dad voting democrat. But this year there is no joy in Mudville - or Titletown (even though I'm pretty sure my dad still voted democrat). The Packers are out of the playoffs this year. That makes getting along the rest of the winter a little - er, a LOT more difficult. It's the mental equivalent of the groundhog seeing it's shadow. Winter just drags on and on and on, angry letters to editors increase ten fold, grumpiness goes unabated, etc. etc. Even a wild card loss is good for shrinking the season a good two weeks. And a playoff win is guaranteed to bring spring by early March. I'm surprised the Farmer's Almanac hasn't picked up on this yet.

But much like Midwest weather, the Packers more or less sucked this season. As such we are stuck with a full season of winter and just as likely a full off-season of complaining and second guessing about the 2008 season. That will likely spill over into spring - right about the time Teddy trades out of the #9 slot and picks up a receiver and a quarterback in round three. Also about the time we get our last snowfall of the year.